Will COVID-19 Change Things Forever?

Nobody knows. That’s the answer. But don’t stop reading.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, rock star public health expert, was interviewed on The Wall Street Journal’s frequently enlightening podcast, The Journal, earlier this week. It’s 24 minutes of Fauci answering questions posed by a Journal reporter, uninterrupted by politicians or captains of industry or anyone else. I think the podcast is well worth your time. Dr. Fauci was asked, among other things, what we can expect over the coming weeks and months as the nation aims to return to “normal.” Dr. Fauci did not pretend to have all the answers – that’s one thing that makes him endearing, I think. He did say that things won’t return to normal suddenly. He said transitioning from our present state to normal is not like a “light switch, on and off.” In his view, it would not be advisable to “jump in with both feet.” None of this is particular alarming, surprising, or ground-breaking. As far as specifics go, Dr. Fauci talked about the possibility that we might see restaurants re-open but with tables spaced out, as one of several examples of how we might get from here to “normal,” gradually.

What Dr. Fauci said that few would dispute is that American life will eventually – albeit gradually – get its mojo back. He pointed to the availability of a vaccine, which he is hopeful (even optimistic) we’ll see in 12-18 months. He thinks a vaccine is the “game-changer” for truly getting back to pre-COVID normal. But Dr. Fauci also said, “I don’t think we’ll ever get back to completely normal.” For example, he suggested that the practice of shaking hands as a common form of greeting may never come all the way back, and that obsessive hand-washing may remain in vogue long after this particular strain of coronavirus stops infecting people. In that respect, I suspect Dr. Fauci was projecting what he hopes will be a lasting impact of COVID-19. Given his chosen profession and what he has seen over the years, he has probably been anti-hand shake and pro-hand wash for a long time.

Even before I listened to that podcast, I have been semi-obsessed thinking about the question of how COVID-19 will change the American way of life in the long term – starting, say, two years down the road, when we’re all back to work, back to attending sporting events, concerts, festivals, and weddings without worrying that we are putting ourselves or others at risk.

In the short term, the impact is plain for all of us to see. In the mid-term (say the next two to eight months), I suppose we’ll see a “gradual” return to normal. I think we’ll see sports come back, but maybe initially in venues that exclude or severely limit the number of fans allowed to congregate. I’m not sure buffet lines come roaring back in the mid-term. I don’t think cruise ships will swell with passengers any time soon. When those of us who play golf are allowed to golf again, I suspect at first the length of conceded putts will expand to avoid forcing golfers to touch the flagstick or retrieve a golf ball from the cup. (I am personally 100% behind generosity on the greens in the name of public health and safety, by the way.)

In the medium-term, people will experiment with all kinds of accommodations to make people feel better about returning to work, and restaurants, and public places generally. And those among us who are skittish may wear masks. I, for one, won’t judge anyone who wears a mask in any setting for a long, long time – maybe forever.

It’s “forever” – the long-term – that interests me most. When it comes to permanently-life-altering events, essentially no one alive today has lived through something quite like this pandemic. In my memory, the last event that had a lasting, noticeable impact on daily life in this country was the coordinated terrorist attack of September 11, 2011. But I’m not sure 9/11’s impacts were even that life-altering. To be sure, traveling through airports is different. The security process is more time-consuming. 3/1/1. Limits on liquids. No lighters. No pocket knives. Take off your shoes (prior to the godsend of TSA Precheck, at least). You can no longer access the gate areas without a ticket. I think all these changes can be traced to 9/11, but are these really life-altering? Essentially, we have all had to learn how to modify how we pack a suitcase unless we want to check a bag, and maybe leave for the airport a little earlier – to be safe. For enhanced safety, not a bad tradeoff.

Beyond that – what else? Office buildings in large cities are certainly more secure – security desks are now common. Enhanced security at high-rise buildings is a good thing, don’t get me wrong. But no security desk or array of armed guards could have prevented what happened at the World Trade Center. Incidentally, the only time I visited that complex was in July 2011, and I found it to have the tightest security of any building I had ever visited. I am sure others – obviously those who lost family or friends, and particularly New Yorkers – could point to other ways in which 9/11 altered everyday life in America and had noticeable cultural impact. But in the end, I’m not sure 9/11 had a tremendous impact on the way Americans go about their daily lives. To be sure, we are all probably a little more anxious when we fly, more aware of our surroundings, and most of us are more tolerant of the government snooping around to prevent the next attack. But mostly, we got back to normal.

The long-term impact of COVID-19 remains to be seen. I am, however, 100% confident in each of the following predictions for the coming months:

• Politicians at all levels from all parties will take credit for having taken actions that saved lives.

• Politicians at all levels from all parties will blame politicians from other parties for failing to take actions that would have saved lives.

• Some people will say that “we” – Americans, as directed by our leaders – overreacted to the COVID-19 pandemic and that social distancing directives and shut-down orders went too far.

• Some people will say that by practicing social distancing as directed by our leaders, we collectively saved lives. (Incidentally, this article has an interesting discussion of the certain debate between the “we saved lives” and “we overreacted” camps. As the article points out, some people will say that the epidemiological models over-estimated the number of sick and dead as proof that we overreacted. Others will argue that our good, conscientious behavior caused us to achieve better results than the models predicted. It will be kind of aggravating to watch that debate, which will mostly take place between cocksure panelists on night-time cable news channels. My bet: few of them will be experts in medicine, public health, statistical modeling, or any other relevant discipline.

• We will be smarter and better, next time. Driven by better data than has ever been available concerning a pandemic and tremendous ability to process that data, an explosion of important, intelligent, science-based, peer-reviewed work studying our experience dealing with COVID-19 will be published – making us better prepared to deal with a threat like this in future, as long as the right people pay attention at the right time.

The balance of this post is dedicated to answering a twist on the question that sits at the top of this post:  “How will COVID-19 make our lives different two years from now – on the weekend of the 2022 Masters?”  I pick two years because I am optimistic that vaccination and/or herd immunity will have mostly gotten us “back to normal” by then. Let me start all this by saying this: most Americans are resilient and adventurous sorts. We like our personal liberties and hate being told how to live our lives. Many hate being told to do something demonstrably proven to be beneficial to your personal health and safety. There are many people who still refuse to wear seat belts or motorcycle helmets – actions that clearly, measured broadly, save lives and reduce injuries. So I have little doubt that we’ll get back to normal – because normal was pretty great.

Here’s my take on how COVID-19 might change our lives down the road – admitting these are nothing more than guesses. I encourage you to share your thoughts in the Comments.

• People who wear masks in public won’t be dismissed as weirdos. In the past, public mask-wearing has not been a super-common thing in the USA. On the five or so times I have traveled to Asia, I’ve seen many masked travelers in airports and subways – likely in part because Asian countries have more experience with virus-borne and transmitted illnesses. Going forward, anyone wearing a mask gets a pass from me – perhaps unless you are approaching a bank teller. Those with compromised immune systems and those themselves suffering from a malady causing them to cough or sneeze who must nonetheless be out and about should probably wear masks. I could even see an industry of fashionable masks developing. We’ll see.

• Hugs ‘n Kisses? Maybe not so fast. Dr. Fauci doesn’t want anyone shaking hands, so I suspect his head would explode if some random member of the public sees him in an airport in a couple of years and approaches to give him a bear hug in appreciation for his public service. My guess is that handshakes in a business setting come back all the way – except that it will be more common for people to beg off and say, “I’ve had a bit of a cold, so if it’s okay I’m not going to shake your hand.” And I think all of us will be absolutely okay with that. Not a slight. Among bro-friends, the fist bump had been on the rise – I think it continues to gain popularity. But what about the huggers and cheek kissers among us? Will they be shunned? Eventually, I suspect the practice of hugging a close friend or family member comes back – I mean, it feels good if someone thinks enough of you to offer a hug, right? But begging off or pulling back a bit will, I think, become more common and won’t be judged as an affront.

• “Self-quarantine” will become a thing if you’re sick. There are people who take pride in never missing a day of work. Through thick and thin, coughing, hacking, sneezing, and wheezing – they show up and answer the bell. The Cal Ripken of the Accounting Department. I think this will change. If you’re sick, stay home, ride it out. I think people riding public transportation who cough or sneeze repeatedly will be viewed as having committed a felony. I can imagine angry words being exchanged – heck, can you imagine if someone breaks the church-like silence of a quiet car on a Metra train with a big, hacky, coughing fit? That could lead to fists being thrown. I think most people get that now, and will be quicker to stay home if they are symptomatic. Especially because …

• The practice of working remotely will increase. Over the last month or so, many of us have been forced to work from home. For those of us in office/desk jobs, this isn’t a big deal. With high-speed internet at home and the proper hardware and software, not a big deal at all. With connectivity tools, face-to-face meetings are possible. Conference calls? No problem, obviously. Access to materials? Most come and go electronically, anyway. I will admit that before this experience, I was a little old school about this. I think there is value – at least in a large law firm – to being physically present and interacting with colleagues. Plus, I have always thought I am more productive in the office than at home. But I have surprised myself – and I save two hours per day otherwise spent commuting or making myself look presentable. I look forward to getting back and seeing my colleagues – but I think I will be a little more open-minded about working remotely in the future. For businesses in which mentoring, interacting with colleagues, etc. is not a really big deal – I suspect what was already a trend toward remote work will pick up steam. Commercial real estate experts, is this a worry? Will we drive a little less? Could this actually be a positive development in reducing pollution?

• The practice of socializing remotely will increase. My 89-year-old tech-challenged mother who is quarantined in an assisted-living facility learned how to use FaceTime the other day in about five minutes. I have attended several Zoom “happy hours” with friends near and far. I have hosted on-line poker games with the participants engaged in banter during via companion Zoom meetings. Technology has made this all really, really easy. Particularly for folks separated by distance, the group meet-up options are now super-easy. The increased use of these tools will stick. That’s not to say the Zoom meet-up with people who all live within a mile of one another is going to take the place of an actual party – but where great friends and family are spread far and wide, there is no longer a good excuse to not “get together” every so often.

• We will all have cleaner hands, forever. In the future, I cannot imagine any public establishment not having hand sanitizer available to its guests. And I think more of us will stop and take a squirt of sanitizer. Likewise, we will linger a little longer at the sink – and use soap. In the interest of having cleaner hands, I think we’ll all use cash less – even less than now. And the practice of swiping or inserting a credit card into a machine will likely give way to holding it close to devices that allow contact-less transactions.

I’ll end with one final comment. That regal looking mutt at the top of this post is our family dog, Ellie. COVID-19 changed her life for the better in the short-term. More companionship, more attention, more walks. Long-term impact? I think not. Ellie will eat her two scoops of Purina Pro Plan twice a day, get walked around the block two or three times, and sleep a lot. Her owners’ lives might change modestly. But post-COVID, a dog’s life is will continue to be pretty great – of that I am confident.