Let’s take stock of the 16 teams that advanced to the second weekend of the National Collegiate Athletic Association’s Men’s basketball tournament:

  • For the first time since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, every team in the Sweet 16 is from one of a dwindling number of so-called “power” conferences – the Southeastern Conference occupies seven spots, the Big Ten and Big 12 four apiece, and the ACC one. The Big East – notwithstanding UConn coach Dan Hurley’s self-proclaimed omnipotence – is sitting out the second weekend.
  • All but one team (#10 Arkansas) in the Sweet 16 was seeded higher than sixth in its region, meaning all but one team in the Sweet 16 was deemed by the selection committee to be among the top 24 teams in the field.
  • All four #1 seeds advanced, as did three of four #2 seeds – only Big East champion St. John’s fell.
  • The only double-digit seed to pull off a meaningful first-round upset was #12 seed McNeese State, which took out #5-seeded Clemson.
  • Unless I missed something, there was one buzzer beater – Maryland’s 72-71 win over Colorado State. And even that was tainted – replays proved beyond doubt that Maryland’s Derik Queen committed a traveling violation on his route to the game-winner, even under the most liberal interpretation of a famously liberally interpreted rule.
Two steps? Three steps? Whatever.

This feels like the chalkiest Sweet 16 in many, many years. If you are looking for a Cinderella story as we head into the second weekend of the tournament, forget it. Any team, like Arkansas, that is coached by John Calipari and loaded with five-star talent does not qualify. Looking at the last five tournaments, 2025 continues a trend of low-numbered seeds dominating the Sweet 16. The average seed of this year’s Sweet 16 (3.44) is actually a tad higher than last year’s average (3.31). But in 2021, 2022, and 2023, the average seed of a Sweet 16 participant was 5.88, 5.31, and 4.88. A trend, perhaps?

Plenty of ink has been spilled this week lamenting the lack of upsets and buzzer beaters and underdog story lines. Many blame NIL and the transfer portal and resulting consolidation of talent at the high-major level. And there is probably some there, there. Today, Yahoo! Sports observed that only three teams in the Sweet 16 (Purdue, Duke, and Michigan State) have more than three starters who began their college careers at those schools. The opening of the market for college basketball talent has led top players at mid-major schools to seek opportunities (read: money) at high-major schools, resulting in a consolidation of talent at those schools.

It seems clear the cohort of mid-major teams with veteran stars capable of leading those teams to shocking upsets and deepish tournament runs is disappearing. If a later-blooming player flashes game at a mid-major and has any eligibility remaining, he’s likely to transfer to another school. I say, “good for him.” I won’t blame any player for pursuing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to monetize his athletic talent. Some fans pine for the “good old days” when players had little choice but to wait for their shot to play at schools they chose as 17- or 18-year-old high schoolers. Those fans are fast becoming the equivalent of old men arguing with clouds. The game has changed. The current system finally shares some of the money generated by the sport with the players who play the sport. Shocking, right? Even Tom Izzo begrudgingly came to realize that you ignore the transfer portal at your peril. He bent a bit, and his team is still playing this weekend.

Thanks for the memories, KJ

The fans of schools who made the Sweet 16 likely could not care less that the tournament – wrought larger – has been something of a dud. My Illinois Fighting Illini exited in Round 2. A decent enough performance against Xavier in Round 1 was followed by a rancid showing in Round 2 against Kentucky. Very on-brand for a maddeningly inconsistent team. On about four or five occasions this season, the Illini looked like national title contenders. On about four or five occasions this season, the Illini looked capable of missing the tournament altogether. Now that they are done playing, my review of the 2024-2025 Fighting Illini? Meh. A big-boy program plays on the second weekend of the tournament. Illinois fell short. An Elite 8 trip in 2024? Great year. A Round-of-32 exit in 2025? Disappointing.

Now, the Illini face the same task every team in America will face over the next several months:  build a roster for 2025-2026. Head Coach Brad Underwood has undeniably brought Illinois back to relevance and has taken various approaches to doing so. He trotted out a very experienced, transfer-fortified team in 2024-25, won a Big Ten tournament championship, and advanced to the Elite 8. Great. Job well done.

In 2024-2025, exactly one player (excluding walk-ons) from last year’s Elite 8 team played in a game for the Illini – reserve guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn. The only other returnee – Ty Rodgers – decided to redshirt this season (as a junior), presumably preparing for his own turn in the transfer portal this Spring. Of Illinois’ 10 top players this year, the conventional wisdom is that two (Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley) will be the program’s first one-and-done first-round NBA draft picks, two will almost certainly transfer out, and the fate of the other six is really anybody’s guess. Losing KJ and Riley after one tantalizing year stinks, particularly because neither is even close to a finished product. But NBA teams pay for potential, and few NIL deals come close to paying what NBA teams pay young men to sit at the end of their benches prior to being able to buy alcohol (legally). Basketball 24/7? No classes? A guaranteed contract? Thank you, where do I sign?

Underwood’s experiment with fielding a really old team went better than his experiment fielding a really young team. My wish – if anyone cares – is for next year’s experiment to be an attempt to blend the old and the new. Keep a core of productive returning players, add studs. Ideally, add studs who can shoot the basketball and defend the perimeter. Easier said than done. The good players all have options. We’ll see how Brad and Co. spend and recruit their way to a competitive team next season.

So what to do now? For me, that’s relatively easy: root for the remaining Big Ten teams and anyone playing against Auburn. We can all agree, I hope, that Bruce Pearl winning a national championship is something to be avoided at all costs.